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The Russia-Ukraine War : An analysis

Russia Ukraine War

Introduction

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, represents one of the most significant geopolitical conflicts in Europe since World War II. This conflict has reshaped international relations, economic stability, and global security dynamics.

Background and Prelude (2014-2021)

The roots of the Russia-Ukraine conflict date back to 2014 when Ukraine witnessed the “Revolution of Dignity,” leading to the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. Following these events:

  • Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 after deploying unmarked military personnel (“little green men”) who occupied key government buildings.

  • Pro-Russian separatists declared independence in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk), initiating prolonged armed conflict.

  • Despite international condemnation and sanctions against Russia, the conflict persisted as a low-intensity war with intermittent ceasefires under the Minsk Agreements, which were never fully implemented.

Immediate Causes of the 2022 Invasion

Several immediate factors led to Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022:

  • NATO Expansion Concerns: Russia demanded guarantees against Ukraine joining NATO and sought limits on NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe. These demands were rejected by the West.

  • Military Buildup: From late 2021 onwards, Russia amassed approximately 190,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders and in Belarus under the pretext of military exercises.

  • Recognition of Separatist Regions: On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially recognized Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states, deploying Russian troops into these territories as “peacekeepers.”

Major Events and Timeline (February 2022 onwards)

Initial Invasion (February-April 2022)

  • On February 24, Putin launched a “special military operation” aiming to “demilitarize” Ukraine.

  • Russian forces attacked from multiple fronts: north from Belarus towards Kyiv; south from Crimea; east from Donbas regions.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law and general mobilization.

  • The Battle of Kyiv saw intense fighting; however, strong Ukrainian resistance halted Russian advances. By early April, Russian forces withdrew from Kyiv’s outskirts.

Shift to Eastern and Southern Fronts (April-August 2022)

  • After failing to capture Kyiv quickly, Russia shifted focus to Donbas regions (Donetsk and Luhansk) and southern Ukraine.

  • Mariupol fell after a prolonged siege at Azovstal steel plant in May 2022.

  • Kherson became the first major Ukrainian city captured by Russian forces.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (August-November 2022)

  • Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson regions, reclaiming significant territories.

  • Western military aid, especially High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), played a critical role in Ukrainian successes.

Humanitarian Impact

The war triggered Europe’s largest humanitarian crisis since World War II:

  • Over eight million Ukrainians fled abroad initially; millions more became internally displaced.

  • Civilian casualties surged due to indiscriminate shelling of residential areas and civilian infrastructure by Russian forces.

  • Mass graves and evidence of war crimes were discovered in liberated towns like Bucha and Irpin.

Global Reactions and Sanctions

International response was swift and severe:

  • Widespread condemnation through UN General Assembly resolutions demanding Russian withdrawal.

  • Extensive sanctions targeting Russian banks, oligarchs, energy exports, aviation sector, technology imports, isolating Russia economically.

  • International Court of Justice ordered Russia to halt military operations; Council of Europe expelled Russia.

Geopolitical Consequences

The conflict significantly altered global geopolitics:

  • NATO Expansion: Finland and Sweden abandoned neutrality policies by applying for NATO membership.

  • Strengthened Western Unity: EU granted Ukraine candidate status for membership; Western nations provided unprecedented military aid to Ukraine.

  • Economic Impacts: Global energy markets disrupted; rising inflation worldwide due to sanctions on Russian commodities.

India’s Position

India maintained a balanced diplomatic stance:

  • Advocated peaceful resolution through dialogue while abstaining from UN resolutions condemning Russia explicitly.

  • Continued trade relations with both countries emphasizing national interests and energy security.